Forecasting

Our research contributes to forecasting slavery in war by developing and integrating conceptual, empirical and computational methods for anticipating future risks of enslavement in conflict. We draw on the past and present, bringing together historical case studies, survivor accounts, contemporary satellite imagery and machine learning methods to understand how slavery has occurred in war and how it might evolve in the future. 

Through GeoAI analysis, we will map slavery-related indicators (e.g. deforestation, population displacement, infrastructure growth) across emerging or re-emerging conflict zones. Building on insights from the other research strands, we will generate AI-supported analyses of open source data to detect evolving patterns and drivers of slavery in war. New conflict simulation methods such as peacegaming will be used to test counter-slavery strategies in complex, dynamic conflict environments. We will also employ a range of ‘future-crafting’ methods to understand the broad sweep of trends and threats that are likely to reshape conflict-related slavery practices, allowing us to visualise multiple possible futures of slavery in war.